Andy Pettitte has been in touch with his former manager, Joe Torre. The Dodgers have some interest in adding Pettitte. He would be a pretty solid addition to the back of their rotation, but I would rather have Randy Johnson. If you look at the stats, Randy was better than Andy in every category except for innings pitched. And that was because The Big Unit was hurt at the start the season. I wouldn’t mind adding both of them if the price was fair. A rotation of Chad Billingsley-Hiroki Kuroda-Randy Johnson-Andy Pettitte-Clayton Kershaw would be solid. The only only hang-up on this idea would be the money. If Unit gets 14 million, and Pettitte gets 12 million, the Dodgers would have only 24 million left to lock up Manny Ramirez with. That might take up all of the money, leaving the Dodgers with next to nothing to fill the third base and shortstop holes with. So I find both player signing in LA not very likely. Despite the possibility of Pettitte reuniting with his former manager I think he will resign with the Yankees. The Dodgers will sign Randy Johnson as their veteran arm, and will also sign a pitcher returning from injury to compete with James McDonald for the final spot.
Padres’ GM Kevin Towers thinks he has identified the third team for a possible Jake Peavy to the Cubs trade. He failed to reveal it, but I will name two teams who could make sense: the A’s and the Giants.
A’s. The A’s really need a third baseman of the future. Josh Vitters is the Cubs’ prospect most likely to be dealt in a Peavy trade, but the Pads don’t want him because if their own log jam at the hot corner. The A’s have a ton of pitching depth, and Vitters just makes too much sense for their team. Maybe a pitcher like Brett Anderson could get it done. So the trade would be looking like this…
- Cubs get: Jake Peavy
- Padres get: Brett Anderson, Felix Pie, Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Tony Thomas
- A’s get: Josh Vitters
Giants. They also have some pitching to spare. There is a big hole at third base, and an aquisition like Vitters should fill that hole in the long run. The Giants could send either Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner. The only problem with this is that both the Padres and the Giants are in the same division. I don’t think the Giants would want to be trading one of their best prospects to a team in their division, and I also don’t think the Padres would want to help the Giants get Vitters. If a deal could be worked out, it would look like this…
- Cubs get: Jake Peavy
- Padres get: Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner, Felix Pie, Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Tony Thomas
- Giants get: Josh Vitters
I doubt the Cubs are able to pull off a trade for Peavy, because even in these two instances, the Padres don’t get much. I find a trade with the Braves much more likely. If not to the Braves, he’ll stay put.
Happy Thanksgiving. I hope all of you eat a
lot of turkey, I know I will. After I’m done eating, I’ll get
right back to baseball and I hope I have time to fit in at
least 1 post. Have a great day.
The A’s are looking like the frontrunners for Rafael Furcal. The only teams left in the bidding are the A’s, Giants, and a mystery team. The mystery team is not the Reds according to Jon Heyman. (same link as above) The A’s pursuing Furcal makes sense. They could have a very good team next year with the additions of Matt Holliday and Rafael Furcal. With talks of them also being in on Nick Johnson and Jason Giambi, the offense looks like it will be getting much better. The Giants, Dodgers, and other teams looking for a shortstop will have to turn to Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria. Finally things will start moving once Furcal signs.
Mark Teixera’s agent, Scott Boras, says that he has recieved a number of offers for Teixera. He isn’t talking about teams that are interested, but actual offers that Tex could accept at any time. Boras didn’t say how many teams, or which teams, but Teixera has at least two offers on the table. The Angels haven’t made an offer yet. The 5 teams interested in Tex are the afermentioned Angels, Red Sox, Oriols, Nationals, and Yankees.
I doubt the Yanks have made a true offer, because they would be unable to sign CC Sabathia in that situation. They are interested in him as a backup plan to CC, but probably didn’t make an offer to Tex yet. It’s possible they could squeeze both Tex and CC into the payroll, but it seems they would prefer another starter like AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe.
So it is between the Red Sox, Nationals, and Oriols. At least 2 of those 3 teams have made offers. It might have even been all three. I find the Sox as the most likely team to make an offer. He is their offseason priority, and I have a feeling that he could end up in Boston when it’s all said and done. They probably already made him a contract offer that would exceed the 8 year, 160 million dollar contract they gave to Manny Ramirez. That was their biggest contract in club history. Tex will get paid more than that, from the Red Sox or a different team.
The Nationals and Oriols are the two sleepers in this market. I could see either team offering 10 years, yet I could see either team not even making an offer. I slightly edge toward the Nats. They seem like they’d be the team to spend a ton of money. Remember, there was a rumor that the Nats were preparing to offer Teixera 10 years, 200 million. If that were true, they would probably win him over. The Oriols also could have made an offer, but I’m guessing it’s more in the 6 year, 120 million range. That won’t get it done.
I have a feeling that Tex has gotten a big offer from some team. This might have been the reason that the Angels contacted CC Sabathia’s agent. It could be that there is a 10 year offer on the table from someone. 10 years is something the Angels will not do; they haven’t given an indication that they’d offer 8. The Angels may be moving on from Tex and moving onto Sabathia.
I used to hate the idea of the Nationals signing Teixera, but I’m starting to understand it. They are in a market that could potentially grow large. Washington DC has a lot of people in it. A 100 million dollar payroll isn’t out of the question. They won’t hit that range in ’09, but later on it’s possible. The Nats need someone to fill the seats, and hopefully Tex will be that player. Of course, they’d have to pull him away from the Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, and Oriols first.
Shortly after the Rockies aquired Huston Street from the A’s in the Matt Holliday trade, the Mets came asking about Street. They offered Aaron Heilman straight up for Huston. Of course, this wouldn’t get it done. The Rox countered by asking for Pedro Feliciano to be included, but the Mets declined. My question is, “What are you thinking?” Street will make only about 5 million next year. After moving Heilman and Feliciano, the money added would probably only be 1 or 2 million. So, your’re getting a solid closer for barely nothing, so you can now spend on a starter, middle reliever, and possibly some more offense.
I understand that they might be afraid to lose Feliciano and count on Scott Schoeneweis, but with the extra money you can just sign a lefty reliever. Joe Bemiel, Brian Shouse, or Arthur Rhodes would be solid aquisitions. The left over money could be used on Derek Lowe. He would make their rotation scary. Spend 16 million on Lowe, and use the other 7 million on middle relievers to replace Feliciano and Heilman.
This could have worked out great for the Mets. This is smarter than committing to Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, isn’t it? I have no idea why they declined.
I know that the Padres really want to trade Jake Peavy, but there are no good suitors left. The Braves dropped out when free agency started, and the Cubs have many obstacles to overcome. They need to fit him into the payroll as well as get a solid package together. I really don’t see what the Cubs have to offer, to the Padres or to a different team in the event of a three-team trade. Lou Pinella says that they’re not interested, anyway.
The Braves still make the most sense. I know that Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward are off limits, so the Padres will have to accept an offer centered around Yunel Escobar. Back in October, I thought that Tommy Hanson, Yunel Escobar, and Jordon Schafer would be an accpetable package. The Braves apparently thought that would be way too much. Their offer was Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton. That’s not even close to what the Pads wanted. I don’t blame them for declining.
A lot of people think that Padres’ GM Kevin Towers screwed up the negotiations, but I think he was doing a very good job. This is not like the Johan Santana situation where you have to trade the player, even if you take a bad offer. They have Peavy under contract for 4 more years. If they can’t trade him now, deal him at this year’s trade deadline. If you can’t trade him then, flip him next offseason. Continue until Peavy is gone. Unless the Braves come back with a much better offer than the one before, it looks like Peavy will be staying put.
I have a feeling that the Braves will come back, though. Whether they sign another top-of-the-rotation starter like Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett will make no difference. If they truly want to compete, they’ll need more than just Lowe or Burnett. Peavy plus a Lowe or Burnett would make them serious contenders for the NL East. They will probably pursue Peavy even harder if they miss out on Lowe or Burnett. I think a package of Yunel Escobar, Jordon Schafer, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, and Tyler Flowers would get it done. The Padres still get a very good deal, and the Braves are able to keep Tommy Hanson. This seems like a good compromise for both sides.
If the Braves are truly out of the picture, look for the Angels or Yankees to get involved. Whichever team that misses out on CC Sabathia could put in a huge bid. Could you imagine if the Angels signed Mark Teixera and added Jake Peavy? They would be unstopable. The Yanks could also use him, but the two teams might not be able to find a match with the prospects.
I really don’t know where Jake Peavy will end up. He might stay put, he might get traded to the Braves, and he might even go to a surprise team. I don’t know.
With so many teams seriously interested in Mark Teixera, the Angels are contemplating the idea of signing CC Sabathia instead. Talks have recently begun with CC and his agent. It is possible that the Angels could offer Sabathia a contract close to the one Johan Santana got; only 3 million less the the Yankees’ offer. This would almost definately get a deal done unless the Yanks raised their offer to the 7 year, 180 million range. If the Yankees do that, Sabathia would be in the same situation he is in now. The Angels wouldn’t go after Sabathia unless Mark Teixera declined his contract offer first. They are preparing to make him a 7 year, 140 million offer, but Tex and Boras are still pushing for 10 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Angels offered Teixera 8 years, 160 million; that’s only 1 extra year than the initial offer they are planning to make. The Red Sox, desperate to counter any Yankees signing, might be willing to throw even more money toward Tex. 9 years, 180 million isn’t out of the question for them. So, if the Angels can’t get Teixera for whatever reason, and he is lost to the Red Sox, Oriols, Nationals, or Yankees, the Halos will turn to Sabathia.
I know this might be confusing, because Sabathia is expected to sign before Tex. The Angels, however, plan on making Teixera their highest offer with a deadline. If Tex accepts, then great. If he declines, they will aggressively pursue CC Sabathia. The Yankees might be trying to do the same thing. They could put a deadline on the offer they made to CC, and then if they don’t get him they can turn to Tex. It would be ironic to see Sabathia sign with the Angels, who need hitting more than pitching, and then see Teixera sign with the Yankees, who need pitching more than hitting. The Dodgers could also follow this idea. Offer Manny a contract with a deadline, and if he doesn’t accept, go after Sabathia. It’s kind of different in their situation, because Manny is almost definately going to resign with the Dodgers. No one else in even interested.
Free agency is a very confusing, tough puzzle to solve. It is almost impossible to truly know who will sign where. I just try my best.
The Indians have 3 big holes to fill this offseason, but limited resources. Can 15 million buy a quality player for the rotation, infield, and bullpen? The Indians will have to get creative with trades or free agent signings. It doesn’t seem like the Tribe’s way to spend big money on a starter, so expect most of the money to go toward the bullpen and/or infield. Instead of paying for a top notch closer like Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, it would be smarter to give the job to a set-up man like Juan Cruz. Trevor Hoffman is the exception because he is a possible bargain. So, 4-7 million goes toward the ‘pen. A reclamation project could be imported on the cheap. Freddy Garcia could make sense for 5 million. With the remaining money, a guy like Mark Grudzielanek or Joe Crede could be added on a short-term deal. This could be the way it happens; they sign Hoffman, Grudzielanek, and Garcia all to short-term contracts. It seems like the thing Mark Shapiro would do: no risk, some upside.
A big free agent could be signed, however. Orlando Hudson finds himself in a bad market for second baseman, and could come at a below market price. Maybe for 8 million or so he could make sense. Then use 7 million on Hoffman and hope for the best with your starting pitching. Maybe even sign a guy like Jon Garland. Use the remaining money on Grudzielanek or Cruz and settle with internal options for the other positions.
The other possibility would be to make a trade. Kelly Shoppach could be moved to fill one of the holes. With so many teams interested in catching help, he could draw something nice. If they believe that Michael Bowden can make a good impression in his rookie year, he could be aquired for Shoppach. Ty Wiggington from the Astros is an option if other pieces are involved. Don’t bring up Jose Valverde; he will cost the same as Trevor Hoffman for the same amount of years, one. The Tribe would be much better off with Hoffman and Shoppach rather than Valverde and Ryan Garko. A deal could be worked out if the Tigers offered Placido Palonco, but that makes little sense for Detroit. So maybe it would be smarter to just keep Shoppach.
In that case, the other catcher could be moved. Victor Martinez has two years left on his contract and could be a very appealing option to many teams. He’ll earn only 5.2 million next year, so it wouldn’t clear much salary, but think about the possible return. I recently wrote about how Victor Martinez for Mike Lowell made sense.
So it looks like Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro will have a very busy offseason in front of him. He will have to get creative if he truly wants to fill all of his holes.
Of course this wouldn’t happen unless the Red Sox aquire Mark Teixera, but if they did, I think Victor Martinez for Mike Lowell would make a lot of sense for both teams.
The Red Sox, flush with cash, would pay the remainder of Lowell’s contract. They could easily afford this. Let’s assume Teixera gets 20 million per year. Martinez will get paid 5.2 million this year. That equals 25 million, leaving the Sox with 10 million extra to sign a fourth outfielder with or just sit on until the deadline. Martinez is a great addition to the team, and that becomes the best lineup in the MLB if you add Tex and V-Mart.
This trade also makes sense for the Indians because they get to aquire a great third baseman for no cost at all. They actually dump salaryb by making this move. It would leave them with 20 million to spend to fill the closer and starting pitching holes. Brian Fuentes and Jon Garland could be two nice aquisitions. So, the Indians would be adding Lowell, Fuentes, and Garland by just subtracting Martinez. They would then give Ryan Garko another shot at first base. Or move Matt LaPorta to the cold corner and sign a left fielder instead of Fuentes or Garland. This idea is much better than the other option. Having Mark Grudzielanek, Trevor Hoffman, and Freddy Garcia while keeping Martinez is not as good as the above mentioned idea.
So I think this trade has the potential to be a big win-win for both teams. Tell me what you think in the comments.