October 2008
Cubs have Need at Right Field
Lou Pinella says that he will move Kosuke Fukudome to center field next year; he’ll platoon with Reed Johnson. This implies many things. Jim Edmonds won’t be back, Felix Pie will again ride the bench, and the Cubs are in the market for a powerful, right field, lefty bat. They are expected to have about 20 million to spend in the offseason. That might not be enough to resign Kerry Wood and Ryan Dempster as well as a big lefty bat. The Cubs might be doing some serious backloading again. If they can squeeze him in, then Bobby Abreu would make a ton of sense. If Brian Giles would accept a trade to the Cubs, they would love him at only 9 million on a one year deal. Jason Marquis will have to be moved to clear salary. I could see them sign Abreu, Dempster, and Wood if they backload each deal and trade Marquis. Another idea: let Wood walk. They could then turn Carlos Marmol into the closer. After that, they might be able to trade Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, and Jason Marquis to the Royals for Ron Mahay. The Royals are adding a great center field prospect in exchange for taking on Marquis salary and Mahay. Have Mahay set-up for Marmol. This idea could work too. These are just some random ideas for the Cubs.
Mike Jacobs traded to Royals for Leo Nunez
MLB.com is reporting that the Marlins have traded Mike Jacobs to the Royals for Leo Nunez. I like this deal a lot for both teams. The Marlins will add speed, defense, and pitching to their team all in one move. That is what they said they wanted to build around, and they didn’t lie. They now can call up Chris Coghlan, move Dan Uggla to third base, and Jorge Cantu to first base. That would help the defense. Coghlan’s speed would give them more versatility on offense. Nunez is a big addition to the bullpen and could help replace Kevin Gregg should he be traded this winter. On top of all that, the Fish are able to cut salary, something they had to do. The Royals did well, also. Some would have argued that they should’ve given Kila Ka’aihue and Ryan Shealy a full shot before trading for Jacobs, but the latter can come in and fill a big void in their lineup. Bringing him in, as well as a possible free agent bat could give them a solid lineup next year. If certain guys do well in the starting rotation, the Kansas City Royals might become the Rays of 2009. Overall, I think this was a good way to start off the 2008-2009 offseason.
Team’s Payroll
I will put the amount of money teams will have to spend this offseason along with their payroll from the previous year, arbitration eligible players, and the salary they have committed. This will make things easier when trying to guess who could afford the top-notch free agents. I was informed greatly from MLB Trade Rumors. This will be a side-bar link.
|
Teams |
Last year’s payroll |
Salary Committed |
Arbitration Eligible |
Estimated money to spend |
|
Braves |
102 million |
48 million |
Casey Kothman, Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, Matt Diaz, Jeff Francoeur, Mike Gonzalez |
45 million |
|
Mets |
138 million |
104 million |
Ryan Church, John Maine, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Duaner Sanchez |
28 million |
|
Phillies |
103 million |
100 million |
Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Greg Dobbs, Ryan Howard |
15 million |
|
Marlins |
21 million |
20 million |
Scott Olsen, Jorge Cantu, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, Matt Treanor, Alfredo Amezaga, Joe Nelson, Kevin Gregg, Logan Kensing, Eulogio de la Cruz, Doug, Waechter |
0 million |
|
Nationals |
55 million |
40 million |
Ryan Zimmerman, Tim Redding, Jesus Colome, Ryan Wagner, Willy Harris |
10 million |
|
Cubs |
118 million |
122 million |
Reed Johnson, Ronny Cedeno, Michael Wuertz, Neal Cotts, Chad Gaudin |
20 million |
|
Brewers |
80 million |
60 million |
Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, Dave Bush, Seth McClung, Todd Coffey, Chris Capuano |
20 million |
|
Cardinals |
100 million |
78 million |
Aaron Miles, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Todd Wellemyer, Brad Thompson |
20 million |
|
Reds |
74 million |
54.5 million |
Bill Bray, Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Lincoln |
15 million |
|
Astros |
86 million |
88 million |
Humberto Quintero, Ty Wigginton, David Newhan, Brian Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, Geoff Geary, Tim Byrdak |
15 million |
|
Pirates |
49 million |
31 million |
Ryan Doumit, Adam LaRoche, Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm, Zack Duke, John Grabow, Tyler Yates, Denny Bautista |
8 million |
|
Dodgers |
59 million |
118 million |
Russell Martin, Andre Eithier, Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Scott Proctor, Yhency Brazoban |
50 million |
|
Diamond Backs |
66 million |
55 million |
Chris Snyder, Augie Ojeda, Conor Jackson, Chris Burke, Edgar Gonzalez, Chad Qualls |
10 million |
|
Rockies |
68 million |
77.5 million |
Garret Atkins, Willy Tavaras, Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Grilli |
3 million |
|
Padres |
73 million |
44 million |
Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston, Heath Bell, Clay Hensley |
4 million |
|
Giants |
76 million |
64 million |
Fred Lewis |
10 million |
|
Angels |
124 million |
87 million |
Macier Izturis, Rob Quinlan, Chone Figgins, Ervin Santana |
30 million |
|
A’s |
48 million |
29 million |
Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer Rob Bowen |
10 million + |
|
Rangers |
67 million |
63 million |
Gerald Laird, Marlon Byrd, Brandon McCarthy, Frank Francisco, CJ Wilson, Kameron Loe |
10 million |
|
Mariners |
117 million |
88 million |
Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Reed |
20 million - |
|
White Sox |
121 million |
108 million |
Bobby Jenks, DJ Carasco, DeWayne Wise |
10 million |
|
Twins |
57 million |
54 million |
Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier |
15 million |
|
Indians |
79 million |
64 million |
Kelly Shoppach |
15 million |
|
Tigers |
137 million |
115 million |
Marcus Thames, Ramon Santiago, Fernando Rodney, Justin Verlander, Gary Glover, Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay |
|
|
14 millionRoyals |
58 million |
52 million |
John Buck, Esteban German, Mark Teahen, Joey Gathright, Zack Greinke, Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies, Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta |
7 million |
|
Red Sox |
133 million |
92 million |
Kevin Youkilis, Kevin Cash, Javier Lopez, Jonathan Papelban |
33 million |
|
Rays |
43 million |
49 million |
Edwin Jackson, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett, Gabe Gross, Jonny Gomes, Grant Balfour |
5 million |
|
Yankees |
209 million |
140 million |
Xavier Nady, Wilson Betemit, Chien-Ming Wang, Brian Bruney |
50 million |
|
Blue Jays |
98 million |
80 million |
Jose Bautista, Jason Frasor, Brian Tallet, Brandon League |
15 million |
|
Orioles |
67 million |
63 million |
Freddie Bynum, Luke Scott, Nick Markakis, Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, George Sherrill, Chris Ray, Fernando Cabrera |
15 million |
Prince Fielder made Available
MLB Trade Rumors is reporting that the Brewers are willing to listen on Prince Fielder. The idea of trading him would be for multiple reasons.
- It would clear salary so they could go get some pitching via free agency.
- It would open up a spot for top prospect Mat Gamel.
- It could bring back a quality starting pitcher to replace CC Sabathia with.
These reasons all point toward trading Fielder, but you never want to lose one of the best first baseman in the MLB. Apparently he is available, however. There should be several teams interested. I did a player market for Fielder here. The asking price remains a good, young starting pitcher. It would take a lot to get the Prince out of Milwaukee, but it definatly could happen.
Could Peavy ask for Bigger Deal in the Event of a Trade?
I dissmissed the Rangers in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, not because they didn’t have the pieces to get a deal done, but because Peavy would’t waive his no-trade-clause to go to Arlington. However, if the Rangers really had their heart set on getting Peavy, they could offer Peavy more money. Or they could offer more prospects and get the Padres to give Peavy money to compensate. They could even get a third team involved to help pay it. But, maybe he would get a reward of a new 6 year, 120 million dollar contract to compensate for him going to the Rangers. I could see it. The only problem is that the Rangers would have to pay the massive contract as well as many good prospects. A team with a big wallet could decide to go this route, however. If the Yankees miss out on CC Sabathia, and Peavy really doesn’t want to go to New York, a deal like this could be struck. The Yankees could trade Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson among others for Peavy. That satisfies the Padres. Then they could throw out Peavy’s old contract and sign him to a new 6 year, 120 million dollar deal. I think the Yanks would be getting ripped off, but Hank Steinbrenner seems to have his heart set on getting an ace pitcher. If Hank wants something, he’ll get it.
Updated Top 50 Free Agents
I made an update to my Top 50 Free Agents. I changed around, probably about ten names. Don’t forget, I’ll make my final updates right before free agents are eligible to sign.
Could/Should the Brewers offer CC Sabathia 4 Years, 100 Million?
The Brewers could offer CC Sabathia 4 years, 100 million. Would he take it? Would it be a smart move on the Brewers part? Those are the questions we’ll look at today. The good part of the deal for the Brewers would be getting CC on a short term of only 4 years. The bad thing is the 25 million per year you are paying him. If he accepted that deal, and you add in arbitration cases, it could put the Brewers at 105 million to start 2009. I don’t know if that is possible for them. Plus, they wouldn’t have a closer. They might have to either backload Sabathia’s deal or make a trade to clear salary. I wrote here. that the Brewers have made Fielder available, but the reasoning was to get a good starter to replace Sabathia. If he’s returning, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade him. They could decline Mike Cameron’s option or trade him, bringing salary down to the 95 range. Tony Gwinn Jr. could take over in center field. Or, if they want to trade Cameron, the Yankees could be interested. They went after him last year in the offseason. The Yanks decided not to sign him because of possible salary concerns if they added Cameron and Johan Santana. I think a Cameron for either Melky Cabrera or Brent Gardner would satisfy both teams. Then Gwinn could share time with Gardner or Melky. That would be serviceable. I don’t know if Sabathia would accept the deal, though. Would he really take only four years? You could make the argument that he would make more money by entering free agency again at age 32, where he could get his 6 or 7 year deal. But, you could also say that he might get injured during this contract and not make anything the next time he reaches free agency. I still think he’d prefer the Yanks at 150 million over 6 years, but you never know.
What Will the Red Sox do with Their Money?
The Red Sox have about 30 million to spend this offseason. What will they spend it on is the question. Unlike other teams with a large amount of money, the Red Sox don’t have many needs. All they need is a catcher and a reliever. I’m sure they’ll get a reliever through free agency. Catcher is the harder need to fill. I think they might want to trade for a Rangers’ catcher. That player would be cheap, however. So they are still going to have over 25 million to spend on luxories. They could go after a starting pitcher. I could see them go all-in for CC Sabathia. Not only would an aquisition make them the unquestioned best team in the MLB, but they would be keeping him away from the Yankees. If they don’t want to pay that much, they could opt for some of the cheaper top-of-the-rotation type players. Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, and AJ Burnett could all be under serious consideration. If they want to, they could attempt to trade Mike Lowell, move Kevin Youkilis to third base, and sign Mark Teixera. I don’t really like this idea, as it would be getting rid of one of the club house leaders, moving Youk to a new position which might mess up his hitting, and would be throwing out money. Would Lowell be 7+ million worse than Tex? I don’t think so. I’d just keep the team the same, with the exception of adding a starting pitcher.
Player Market: Manny Ramirez
Will Manny Ramirez get his crazy demands? I don’t think so, but lets look at some teams that might give in.
Dodgers (frontrunners) There is no great fit for Manny, but the Dodgers make the most sense because of the familarity. They have a boatload of outfielders, but because of what he did for their team and how popular he is, they have to at least try to keep him. I think he’ll get 4 years, 80 million. I explained why he shouldn’t get the 6 years he wants here.
Angels (possible) Could Manny be going to the team on the other side of LA? If they miss out on Mark Teixera, they might even become the frontrunner. Manny could DH most of the time and he knows LA. This team seems to be the best fit, if Tex doesn’t return to the Angels.
Mets (possible) There have been conflicting reports on whether they’re interested or not. So I will label them as “possible.” They do have an open left field spot. Ya, I know they have Daniel Murphy, but I think of him more as depth in case of a Luis Castillo or Ryan Church injury. Manny would make a lot of sense here, but they probably view starting pitching as their #1 need.
Braves (not likely) I just put them because they have the money. Not many other teams can afford a 20+ million dollar contract and still have money to spend. Bobby Cox might be able to keep Manny in line, but they, like many other teams, view starting pitching as a more pressing need.
Yankees (not likely) They might do it solely to antagonize the Red Sox. However, with the pitching problems and such a bad defense it might not be a great idea to add Manny. If I were them, I’d use the money on pitching. If they have the urge to add a bat, bring in Teixera.
Blue Jays (dark horse) He has always destroyed the Yankees, as well as the rest of the AL East. He would probably be extremely motivated to play so many games against the Red Sox. If the Jays want to compete, they have to get a big bat. Ramirez would be a perfect fit, the only problem is the salary. With about 15 million to spend, they’d have to either backload his contract or make a trade. This team makes a lot of sense, but are a long shot because of the money.
Manny Ramirez Wants 6 Years 150 Million
Scott Boras has been pushing for Manny Ramirez to get 6 years and 150 million on the open market. Remember a couple weeks ago when people were hesitant to give him a three year deal. Manny just wants to double that. I don’t even think I’d give him 2 years 50 million. To me the fair price would be 4 years, 80 million. You can’t go past four years with a guy that could just quit the team like he did in Boston. I’d also put heavy incentives in the deal for his hard work. Any funny buisness, and he loses all incentives. There could be a vesting player option as well. This 25 million a year talk is crazy. In fact, it’s almost as crazy as a 36 year old demanding 6 years. Plus, there’s no great fit. There’s the Dodgers, but they have an outfield surplus. Even though, there have been rumors that the Dodgers offered him 2 years, 60 million. If I was Manny, I’d accept this in a second and then get another big deal after the two. The Mets seem to want to spnd their money on pitching. The Braves might do it hoping Bobby Cox could keep Manny in line, but they also would rather spend on pitching. Angels could be a fit, but they seem more likely to bring back Mark Teixera. The Yankees would rather add starters. If they are going to bring in a hitter, Tex is the likely one. No other team could afford his 20 million per year contract. I don’t see him getting what he wants.
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